Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a03…84d3 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$4
other 23% +$7
politics 7% $0
crypto 2% −$2
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 44% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 18 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 0% -10.0%
all 40 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage476d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $9 −$2 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $22 +$2 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $62 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $24 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $47 −$4 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $6 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $48 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Environmental Protection Agency be most efficient on March 31 Mar 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on March 31? Mar 25 $12 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $45 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $38 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $37 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $8 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $44 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $40 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $23 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $22 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $41 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $38 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $2 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $25 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $24 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 49¢ $43 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $15 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $15 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records