Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9A 0x9a03…4066 sports 116 markets active 12h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,218 (+33%) realized +$1,218 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%69W / 44L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$32
14 days+$764
30 days+$1,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,171
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +15.4% +4.4% 57% 57% -4.4%
≤30d 113 +17.8% +6.6% 61% 61% +19.2%
≤90d 113 +17.8% +6.6% 61% 61% +19.2%
all 113 +17.8% +6.6% 61% 61% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 61% +19.2%
10% -3.6% 60% +7.8%
15% -12.9% 59% -2.6%
20% -21.5% 54% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1,218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses69 / 44
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)113 / 116
History coverage25d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Under 62¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $25 +$26 +101%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $15 +$14 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$6 +188%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $181 −$1 -1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $25 +$30 +119%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $3 +$5 +172%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 11 $25 +$13 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $15 +$6 +42%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $10 +$9 +93%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $10 +$11 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $10 +$7 +65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Jun 07 $10 +$10 +97%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Jun 07 $10 +$10 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 07 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 07 $15 +$11 +70%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 07 $15 +$17 +109%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $5 +$7 +134%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 06 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 174.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Doosan Bears Jun 06 $17 −$17 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $15 +$14 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $10 +$12 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $10 12h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $10 12h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 69¢ $25 12h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 48¢ $15 35h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $25 35h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 47¢ $20 42h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 42h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 52¢ $15 42h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 52¢ $10 44h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 48¢ $30 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $180 46h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos BUY No 52¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $181 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 43¢ $10 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 59¢ $10 3d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 59¢ $15 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY Yes 65¢ $25 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $10 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 5d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $10 5d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 5d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 6d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 160.5 BUY Under 43¢ $31 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones BUY Laura Siegemund 70¢ $15 6d
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Fabian Marozsan 62¢ $15 7d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa BUY Daria Snigur 48¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.19 · official $30.19 (match) · 199 history records