Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99ff…3428 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$52 (-20%) realized −$32 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -32.4% -38.8% 47% 47% -31.8%
≤30d 19 -32.4% -38.8% 47% 47% -31.8%
≤90d 19 -32.4% -38.8% 47% 47% -31.8%
all 19 -32.4% -38.8% 47% 47% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 47% -31.8%
10% -44.7% 37% -38.3%
15% -50.0% 21% -44.3%
20% -54.9% 16% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $13 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $33 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $11 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 34 history records