Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99fe…5705 other 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+1%) realized +$109 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%196W / 27L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 25% +$39
other 23% +$22
world 15% +$28
tech 12% +$13
politics 12% +$20
crypto 7% +$12
finance 3% +$6
sports 2% −$18
weather 1% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +14.0% +3.2% 88% 19% -9.0%
≤30d 39 +11.1% +0.5% 82% 18% -8.7%
≤90d 119 +5.4% -4.7% 83% 13% -8.1%
all 223 +2.5% -7.3% 88% 11% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 11% -8.3%
10% -16.1% 7% -17.1%
15% -24.2% 6% -25.1%
20% -31.7% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses196 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions44
Markets (closed)223 / 267
History coverage652d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 96¢ 97¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $25 $30 +$4 (+18%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 98¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 94¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 74¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Meta acquire TikTok? No 95¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? No 96¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $1 +$3 +223%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Will three people dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $236 +$1 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $141 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $11 $0 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $41 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -35%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $71 +$3 +5%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 $0 +6%
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? May 18 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 18 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed May 18 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 18 $87 +$4 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 12 $3 +$3 +85%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $4 +$8 +221%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $150 +$2 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 6h
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 6h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 11h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $0 11h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 84¢ $4 12h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 96¢ $3 13h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 13h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 14h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 16h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 16h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 17h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 17h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY No 100¢ $18 18h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 18h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $3 18h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 18h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 19h
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 19h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 20h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY No 100¢ $10 22h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 22h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 23h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $574.09 · official $573.43 (match) · 1389 history records