Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99fe…b61c sports 845 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,932 (-8%) realized −$6,716 · open −$216
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%351W / 477L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$395est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$312
7 days−$1,597
14 days+$250
30 days−$2,805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$6,864
other 5% −$611
culture 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -38.1% -44.0% 26% 26% -54.8%
≤30d 132 -10.7% -19.2% 41% 41% -24.9%
≤90d 235 -12.1% -20.5% 41% 41% -24.4%
all 828 -7.8% -16.5% 42% 42% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 42% -17.7%
10% -24.5% 42% -25.5%
15% -31.8% 41% -32.7%
20% -38.5% 37% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$88 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$1,136
Realized−$6,716
Unrealized−$216
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses351 / 477
Est. fees paid−$395
Open positions16
Markets (closed)828 / 845
History coverage190d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 828 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $330 $158 −$172 (-52%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $130 $144 +$14 (+11%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $148 $140 −$8 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 59¢ 60¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $75 $88 +$12 (+17%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 17¢ $20 $55 +$35 (+175%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+22%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $56 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $29 $4 −$25 (-86%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $35 $3 −$32 (-92%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 455 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $132 +$89 +67%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $153 +$80 +52%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $162 −$160 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Hunter vs Costoulas Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $254 +$133 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $122 +$94 +77%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $103 +$247 +239%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $142 −$140 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $66 +$124 +187%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $410 −$400 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $109 +$91 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $170 +$130 +76%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $138 +$202 +146%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $59 +$101 +170%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $117 −$115 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $153 +$137 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $132 +$118 +90%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $114 +$116 +101%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $60 +$46 +77%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $64 +$86 +134%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $188 +$112 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $174 −$172 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $247 +$113 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $147 −$145 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $178 +$172 +97%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $137 +$163 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $127 +$73 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $123 +$77 +62%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $25 +$75 +307%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$147 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 3¢ $26 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 35¢ $51 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 9h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $132 9h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $162 11h
Set 2 Winner: Hunter vs Costoulas BUY Costoulas 38¢ $102 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 70¢ $20 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $381 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $71 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,135.83 · official $1,162.71 · 1893 history records