Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x99fc…ec26 sports 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 750d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,693 (-1%) realized −$2,751 · open −$942
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%226W / 267L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1,467est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 750d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$4,525
other 6% −$1,523
politics 0% −$258
crypto 0% +$114
culture 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -26.6% -33.6% 40% 40% -29.0%
≤30d 56 -15.6% -23.6% 41% 41% -23.8%
≤90d 210 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 43% -9.7%
all 493 -8.5% -17.3% 46% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 41% -11.3%
10% -25.2% 36% -19.8%
15% -32.4% 29% -27.5%
20% -39.0% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$201 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

750d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized−$2,751
Unrealized−$942
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses226 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,467
Open positions2
Markets (closed)493 / 495
History coverage750d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 58¢ 61¢ $483 $508 +$25 (+5%)
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Taylor Fritz 67¢ 0¢ $968 $1 −$967 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $1,236 −$340 -28%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $1,257 +$215 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,604 +$667 +42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $515 −$495 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 −$787 -78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,021 −$1,350 -67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,517 +$900 +59%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,615 +$443 +27%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $637 −$637 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 20 $191 −$191 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 20 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 20 $523 −$523 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $167 +$263 +158%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $254 −$254 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $231 +$54 +23%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $400 +$174 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $473 −$473 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $321 +$153 +48%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $189 +$132 +70%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $534 −$534 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $580 −$47 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,255 −$674 -54%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $898 +$356 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $997 +$480 +48%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $272 −$272 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $261 +$765 +294%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $274 −$264 -96%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $642 +$165 +26%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 17 $410 −$410 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $213 +$198 +93%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $734 −$734 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $291 +$53 +18%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $185 +$106 +57%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $314 −$314 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $203 +$290 +142%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $135 +$74 +54%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $82 +$154 +188%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $61 +$120 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 29 $254 −$254 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $178 +$335 +189%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 28 $1,323 −$496 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 28 $356 −$356 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $509 +$654 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 58¢ $489 13m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 93¢ $472 13m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 58¢ $18 15m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 41¢ $103 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 39¢ $117 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 12¢ $75 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 17¢ $144 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 40¢ $262 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 21¢ $262 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $977 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Tommy Paul 45¢ $976 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 66¢ $1,471 2h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Nuno Borges 100¢ $1,473 2h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Nuno Borges 85¢ $1,257 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 47¢ $1,016 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,604 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $515 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $226 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,013 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $672 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2,021 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,417 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $1,517 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $1,752 23h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $799 24h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $307 25h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 36¢ $306 25h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 58¢ $509 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.96 · official $483.96 · 1266 history records