Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99f5…5e52 other 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%32W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$74
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$11
sports 42% +$25
crypto 6% −$15
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -36.5% -42.5% 19% 19% +1.0%
≤30d 191 -41.3% -46.9% 17% 17% -10.9%
≤90d 191 -41.3% -46.9% 17% 17% -10.9%
all 191 -41.3% -46.9% 17% 17% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.9% 17% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -51.9% 17% -19.5%
15% -56.6% 17% -27.2%
20% -60.8% 15% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses32 / 159
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions28
Markets (closed)191 / 219
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 61¢ 64¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 37¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+488%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$12 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$9 +57%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -92%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $5 +$35 +680%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $2 +$16 +786%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$34 +94%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +226%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$16 +108%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 +$8 +786%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 52¢ $3 47m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 62¢ $20 13h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 13h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $2 13h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.78 · official $282.78 (match) · 289 history records