Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99f0…7464 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$219 (-11%) realized +$115 · open −$334
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 590d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$460
other 23% −$153
crypto 5% +$16
world 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.6% -36.3% 0% 0% -32.5%
≤30d 10 -29.6% -36.3% 0% 0% -32.5%
≤90d 10 -29.6% -36.3% 0% 0% -32.5%
all 11 -25.4% -32.5% 9% 9% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 9% -29.3%
10% -39.0% 0% -36.1%
15% -44.9% 0% -42.3%
20% -50.3% 0% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$28 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$334
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage590d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 32¢ 16¢ $698 $364 −$334 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $51 −$11 -21%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$4 -9%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $51 −$11 -21%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $84 −$3 -3%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $102 −$4 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $482 −$26 -6%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $117 −$115 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in November? Nov 09 $101 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 17¢ $88 1m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $40 2m
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $47 2m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $624 12m
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $41 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 25¢ $51 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $82 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 41¢ $97 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Sweden 58¢ $455 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 60¢ $482 2h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes $17 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $51 11h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 24¢ $51 13h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 41¢ $102 13h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 13h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $25 23h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $51 23h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $84 23h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 49¢ $117 23h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in November? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 590d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.00 · official $364.00 (match) · 22 history records