Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99ef…f81c world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$7
other 29% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 10% $0
tech 7% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 0% -11.3%
all 34 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage312d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $20 −$1 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $45 −$5 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.25 in July? Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $16 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $12 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 23¢ $9 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $7 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $20 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 38h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $23 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $6 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $27 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.68 · official $27.68 (match) · 127 history records