Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99ee…00bd crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$96 (+9%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 38% -15.5%
≤30d 58 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 38% -17.5%
≤90d 59 -19.6% -27.3% 39% 39% -16.9%
all 59 -19.6% -27.3% 39% 39% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 39% -16.9%
10% -34.2% 34% -24.9%
15% -40.6% 31% -32.1%
20% -46.4% 25% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage45d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $67 +$51 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$21 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $56 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$15 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$25 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$24 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records