Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
99 0x99ec…856d crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,159 (+14%) realized +$1,159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%73W / 46L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$209
14 days+$346
30 days+$636
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,029
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.0% +6.8% 63% 63% +7.0%
≤30d 54 +16.7% +5.6% 61% 61% +3.7%
≤90d 119 +17.2% +6.0% 61% 61% +1.5%
all 119 +17.2% +6.0% 61% 61% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 61% +1.5%
10% -4.1% 61% -8.2%
15% -13.4% 61% -17.0%
20% -21.9% 61% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$63 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses73 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage64d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$48 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$50 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$50 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$49 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$59 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$50 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$48 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$28 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $61 +$48 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$48 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $62 +$49 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $59 −$40 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $56 +$48 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $61 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $74 +$48 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $65 +$51 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $69 −$37 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $54 −$33 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $50 −$35 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $54 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $62 +$49 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $84 +$48 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $69 +$50 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $149 −$88 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $110 +$107 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $108 +$100 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $129 +$98 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 23 $114 +$98 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $95 −$57 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 23 $156 +$100 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 23 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 23 $114 +$98 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $119 +$98 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $112 +$101 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $36 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $28 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $62 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $61 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $23 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 521 history records