Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99e3…3169 crypto 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,049 (-8%) realized −$1,049 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%228W / 363L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day120.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$971
7 days−$1,022
14 days−$1,024
30 days−$1,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$181
weather 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -73.1% -75.6% 20% 12% -72.3%
≤30d 591 -28.6% -35.4% 39% 32% -16.9%
≤90d 591 -28.6% -35.4% 39% 32% -16.9%
all 591 -28.6% -35.4% 39% 32% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.4% 32% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.6% 26% -24.8%
15% -47.2% 21% -32.1%
20% -52.4% 17% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$1,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses228 / 363
Open positions3
Markets (closed)591 / 449
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day120.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? No 88¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 45¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.44 · official $11.44 (match) · 3500 history records