Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
99 0x99df…b6a5 politics 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$16
other 21% −$3
tech 7% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage87d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 19 $948 −$2 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $970 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $916 −$2 -0%
Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $906 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $24 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 24 $869 −$2 -0%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,703 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 23 $916 $0 +0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 23 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 22 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $843 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March? Apr 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 28 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $86 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $946 28m
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 34m
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 42m
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $903 51m
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $968 1h
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $937 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $699 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $898 2h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $915 22h
Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $54 23h
Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $17 23h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 23h
Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 23h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 23h
Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $14 23h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $122 23h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 24h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $683 24h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $216 24h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 24h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $900 24h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $84 22d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records