Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99d6…17df other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$239 (+16%) realized +$243 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$196
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$3
sports 34% +$236
crypto 15% $0
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +32.6% +20.0% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤90d 10 +17.0% +5.9% 90% 20% +16.6%
all 17 +10.2% -0.3% 94% 12% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 12% +13.1%
10% -9.8% 12% +2.3%
15% -18.6% 12% -7.6%
20% -26.5% 12% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$196 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage180d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $538 $534 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $198 −$196 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $174 +$288 +165%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $142 +$144 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? May 08 $230 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 07 $8 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 07 $16 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Apr 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in January? Feb 05 $16 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Google reach $420 in January? Feb 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 10 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.39 · official $534.39 (match) · 34 history records