Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99d6…9fca sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$149 · open −$100
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$144
weather 40% −$13
other 1% −$7
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.9% -13.0% 45% 42% -18.8%
≤30d 36 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 39% -15.9%
≤90d 36 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 39% -15.9%
all 36 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 39% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 39% -15.9%
10% -29.7% 31% -23.9%
15% -36.5% 25% -31.3%
20% -42.7% 17% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage21d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 30¢ 86¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+188%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Blaze $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner FOKUS 40¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Eternal Fire 32¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Eternal Fire 32¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs venom - Map 2 Winner venom $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner FOKUS 56¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Misa Esports 29¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs venom (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $38 +$7 +19%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $24 −$12 -49%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $46 +$13 +30%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $6 $0 -8%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $8 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $11 +$6 +50%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $40 −$19 -48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$3 -40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $8 −$2 -26%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $27 −$15 -54%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -91%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 +$8 +388%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $19 +$11 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $22 −$8 -35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $16 +$34 +211%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $2 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $3 +$2 +53%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$2 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $7 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $6 +$4 +69%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 02 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 02 $48 −$46 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 02 $403 +$54 +14%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner SELL MIR 100¢ $57 14m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid Academy 100¢ $10 24m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY MIR 35¢ $2 26m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner SELL MIR 47¢ $4 27m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY MIR 57¢ $6 27m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 58¢ $4 30m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY MIR 48¢ $19 31m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY MIR 64¢ $7 36m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 55¢ $6 48m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 29¢ $4 50m
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs venom (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group SELL Johnny Speeds 100¢ $5 52m
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner SELL Sharks 100¢ $97 53m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid Academy 33¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Eternal Fire 19¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs venom - Map 2 Winner BUY venom $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 53¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Eternal Fire 44¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner SELL FOKUS 20¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 21¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 49¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 49¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner SELL Sharks 51¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 53¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 50¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs venom (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group BUY Johnny Speeds 92¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner SELL Sharks 100¢ $106 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 20¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 52¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 49¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 49¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.32 · official $6.26 (match) · 212 history records