Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99d0…a67e crypto 547 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,433 (+0%) realized +$1,431 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate96%526W / 20L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$563per market
Trades / day139.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,041
finance 3% +$126
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 546 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 546 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 6% -9.8%
all 546 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 6% -9.8%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$702) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$325 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,771
Realized+$1,431
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses526 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)546 / 547
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$563
Trades / day139.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Up 99¢ 99¢ $673 $675 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $1,342 +$28 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $671 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $525 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $671 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $671 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $671 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,342 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,342 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 18, 12PM ET? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $666 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $666 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $666 +$14 +2%
Ethereum above 1,800 on June 18, 11AM ET? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1,332 +$27 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $662 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $662 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $662 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $662 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $262 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $661 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $661 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $589 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $661 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $661 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $661 +$13 +2%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $660 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $658 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $656 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $656 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $655 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $519 +$10 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $626 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $626 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $626 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $626 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $626 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 17, 4PM ET? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $367 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $626 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 17, 4PM ET? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $567 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $627 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $626 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $626 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $626 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1,252 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,252 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $626 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $626 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $671 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $90 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $194 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $162 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $82 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $110 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $426 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $477 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $197 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,770.74 · official $2,770.74 (match) · 3500 history records