Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99cd…0eea other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized +$79 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$5
sports 29% +$196
politics 24% −$93
world 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +31.9% +19.4% 40% 40% +62.5%
≤30d 10 +31.9% +19.4% 40% 40% +62.5%
≤90d 10 +31.9% +19.4% 40% 40% +62.5%
all 10 +31.9% +19.4% 40% 40% +62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.4% 40% +62.5%
10% +7.9% 40% +47.0%
15% -2.5% 40% +32.8%
20% -12.1% 30% +19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$12 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $100 $7 −$93 (-93%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+222%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Scor Jun 22 $51 +$102 +200%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$21 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$33 +309%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$79 +370%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Scor BUY 33¢ $51 6h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 60¢ $25 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 11h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 33h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 33h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 33h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 33h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $108 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.56 · official $140.56 · 21 history records