Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99cc…7d36 crypto 402 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$54 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%272W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$42
14 days−$43
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 -4.3% -13.4% 65% 62% -10.2%
≤30d 400 -0.2% -9.7% 68% 64% -10.2%
≤90d 401 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 63% -10.2%
all 401 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 63% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 63% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 53% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 40% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 23% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses272 / 129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)401 / 402
History coverage68d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 80¢ 48¢ $44 $26 −$17 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $75 +$57 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $91 +$35 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $86 +$45 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $38 +$21 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $72 +$33 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$47 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $45 +$29 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $69 +$62 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $44 −$43 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$37 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $38 +$21 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $64 +$25 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$32 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $44 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$33 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $43 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$29 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $135 +$54 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$29 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $44 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $75 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $53 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $40 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $40 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $91 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $57 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $41 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $47 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $86 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $42 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $46 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.40 · official $26.94 (match) · 708 history records