Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
99 0x99cb…cf73 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 18% +$25
politics 13% $0
tech 11% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 30 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 7% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 7% -6.4%
10% -11.3% 3% -15.4%
15% -19.8% 3% -23.6%
20% -27.7% 3% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.33 per $1 lost it wins $6.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage450d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $61 −$2 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 $0 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $61 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $68 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $7 +$25 +344%
Will George Russel win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $26 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $33 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $18 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $12 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $30 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 79¢ $31 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $31 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $30 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $29 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $29 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records