Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99c9…bba3 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$4
world 30% +$2
sports 25% $0
finance 4% −$6
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 16 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 16 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 0% -10.6%
all 30 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -22.6% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage376d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $51 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $63 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $26 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $26 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $26 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $43 −$6 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $26 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $175 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 07 $195 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 01 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 09 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $24 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $26 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $10 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $10 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $24 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $24 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $27 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $26 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $25 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $26 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records