Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99c8…7ea8 weather 482 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%432W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% +$20
other 17% −$4
world 12% −$6
crypto 6% +$6
politics 6% −$22
sports 5% −$24
culture 4% −$12
tech 1% −$12
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +22.6% +10.9% 75% 25% -9.0%
≤30d 89 +8.8% -1.6% 85% 13% -9.1%
≤90d 303 +2.0% -7.8% 94% 4% -9.9%
all 475 +0.7% -8.9% 91% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -9.9%
10% -17.6% 5% -18.6%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.4%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses432 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)475 / 482
History coverage159d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in week 1? No 100¢ 99¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will John Mills be the Republican nominee for AL-01? No 100¢ 91¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 18 $128 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$11 +74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $175 −$14 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 +$7 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +119%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $160 +$1 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $14 +$6 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +109%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $153 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $125 −$4 -3%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 +$1 +1%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $66 +$1 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $66 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $66 +$1 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Jun 10 $91 $0 +0%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $62 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $36 +$1 +2%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $80 −$13 -16%
Will the People Power Party win 0 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 05 $102 −$22 -22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4 +$7 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $82 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 31 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 30? May 31 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $92 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $130 2d
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 93¢ $119 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $4 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 99¢ $4 3d
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 57¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $160 6d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $6 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 68¢ $14 6d
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 99¢ $128 6d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $160 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 98¢ $153 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $60 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $65 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $54 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $60 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.91 · official $404.87 (match) · 988 history records