Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99c4…18e7 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,490 (+34%) realized +$21,490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$970per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,630
crypto 33% +$1,054
sports 17% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -65.5% -68.8% 9% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 11 -65.5% -68.8% 9% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 72 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 36% -10.8%
all 72 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 36% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 36% -10.8%
10% -23.5% 22% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -30.9% 17% -27.1%
20% -37.7% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$535) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
51.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$108 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21,490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 65
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$970
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$1 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14,169 +$85 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9,386 −$1,697 -18%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10,599 −$288 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7,780 −$18 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 11 $8 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 11 $131 −$17 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 11 $110 +$148 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 11 $460 −$18 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 11 $109 −$37 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 11 $320 −$95 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 11 $227 +$70 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 11 $500 +$26 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $139 +$132 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 11 $113 +$24 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 11 $195 −$25 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $112 +$80 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 11 $6 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 11 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 11 $52 +$43 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 11 $155 −$2 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 11 $295 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 11 $437 +$32 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 11 $739 −$124 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 11 $11 +$7 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 11 $58 −$15 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 11 $78 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 11 $226 +$86 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 11 $350 +$14 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 11 $337 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 11 $515 −$95 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 11 $2,231 −$1,012 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 11 $84 +$36 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 11 $94 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 11 $682 +$376 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 11 $88 −$48 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 11 $170 +$109 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 11 $659 +$63 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 11 $631 +$26 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 11 $496 −$6 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 1¢ $1 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 1¢ $1 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 2¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 2¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 1¢ $1 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 2¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 2¢ $0 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 3¢ $2 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 3¢ $1 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 32m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 3¢ $3 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $32 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $19 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $49 32m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $100 33m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $100 33m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 33m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 33m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 33m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 5¢ $5 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records