Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

99 0x99c4…6266 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$70 (+9%) realized +$78 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+38.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+53.5%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+44.6%
≤30d	6	+53.5%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+44.6%
≤90d	6	+53.5%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+44.6%
all	6	+53.5%	+38.9%	67%	67%	+44.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.9%	67%	+44.6%
10%	+25.6%	67%	+30.7%
15%	+13.5%	67%	+18.1%
20%	+2.3%	67%	+6.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +53% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$94 vs −$59 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$322

Realized+$78

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$330	$322	−$8 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$56	+$147	+262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$79	+$58	+73%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina	Jun 18	$79	−$79	-100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$99	+$117	+119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$79	+$53	+67%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$40	−$39	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$334	1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$202	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$137	1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina	BUY Elena Rybakina	82¢	$79	3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$79	5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$56	5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$8	21h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	45¢	$99	21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$32	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$132	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$79	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.03 · official $322.03 (match) · 15 history records