Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99c1…7c93 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%22W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$76
other 28% −$23
crypto 15% +$2
tech 9% +$1
culture 8% +$2
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 23 -3.8% -13.0% 96% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -21.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -28.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$993) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$28 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses22 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage192d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $185 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 17 $250 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 28 $249 +$1 +0%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $249 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 04 $248 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $1,046 +$2 +0%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Mar 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 18 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 14? Mar 14 $1,043 +$1 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 11 $980 +$63 +6%
Thunder vs. Bulls Mar 04 $970 +$10 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $840 end of February? Feb 28 $969 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 9 above $300? Feb 14 $969 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $180 end of January? Jan 31 $995 +$1 +0%
Will Jessie Buckley be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Jan 23 $993 +$2 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $9 $0 +2%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $53 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $122 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $169 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $183 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $457 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $137 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 29d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $185 29d
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 45d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 100¢ $249 63d
Heat vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 100¢ $249 77d
Celtics vs. Heat BUY Celtics 100¢ $248 85d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,046 91d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Heat 100¢ $1,045 92d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 100¢ $1,044 101d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,043 106d
Timberwolves vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 94¢ $980 107d
Thunder vs. Bulls BUY Thunder 99¢ $124 114d
Thunder vs. Bulls BUY Thunder 99¢ $41 114d
Thunder vs. Bulls BUY Thunder 99¢ $5 114d
Thunder vs. Bulls BUY Thunder 99¢ $626 114d
Thunder vs. Bulls BUY Thunder 99¢ $173 114d
Will Meta (META) close above $840 end of February? BUY No 100¢ $969 120d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 9 above $300? BUY No 100¢ $969 132d
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 142d
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 142d
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 142d
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 142d
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $19 142d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $180 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $995 147d
Will Jessie Buckley be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy BUY Yes 100¢ $993 157d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $122 178d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $183 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $457 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.72 · official $250.72 (match) · 56 history records