Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99bf…2886 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+51%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 43% +11.1%
≤30d 7 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 43% +11.1%
≤90d 7 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 43% +11.1%
all 7 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 43% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 43% +11.1%
10% -15.5% 43% +0.4%
15% -23.7% 43% -9.3%
20% -31.2% 43% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$33 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$23 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $35 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records