Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99bf…9ba8 weather 1647 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%1325W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$26
crypto 3% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 24% -9.7%
≤30d 392 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 24% -9.9%
≤90d 1644 -1.6% -10.9% 81% 15% -10.7%
all 1644 -1.6% -10.9% 81% 15% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 15% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 7% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 4% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1325 / 319
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1644 / 1647
History coverage70d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 29? No 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 13? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? No 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 14? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 30? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29? No 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 21? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 28? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 20? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11? No 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 13? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 12? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 16? No 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 84¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 33¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 54¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.24 · official $5.20 (match) · 3500 history records