Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99bd…d886 other 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-13%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%114W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$32
sports 34% −$45
crypto 31% −$29
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.5% -33.5% 15% 15% -19.1%
≤30d 53 -41.7% -47.2% 21% 21% -32.9%
≤90d 319 -22.0% -29.5% 36% 27% -23.1%
all 319 -22.0% -29.5% 36% 27% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 27% -23.1%
10% -36.2% 20% -30.4%
15% -42.4% 16% -37.2%
20% -48.0% 13% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses114 / 205
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)319 / 321
History coverage81d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -59%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -28%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $1 −$1 -58%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 $0 -15%
Cuiabá EC vs. CR Brasil: Both Teams to Score May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4 +$4 +99%
Will CS Cienciano vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 31 $3 −$1 -33%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4 $0 -4%
Will FC Cajamarca vs. Club Alianza Lima end in a draw? May 31 $1 $0 -7%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -61%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 +$1 +25%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score May 31 $2 $0 +11%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Serbia end in a draw? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Athletic Club vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 +$3 +254%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 30 $4 −$3 -95%
Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $2 +$1 +74%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FCSB win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will FC Hermannstadt vs. FCSB end in a draw? May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -91%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$8 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 44m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 45m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 48¢ $1 45m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 48¢ $0 46m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $1 54m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 33¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 24¢ $0 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 28¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 10¢ $0 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.25 · official $3.25 (match) · 912 history records