Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x99bd…a9de sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$381 (+9%) realized +$381 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$379
world 29% −$4
other 23% +$4
crypto 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 +1.6% -8.1% 62% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 12 +48.7% +34.5% 50% 8% +0.2%
all 14 +34.6% +21.8% 50% 7% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.8% 7% -1.5%
10% +10.2% 7% -10.9%
15% -0.5% 7% -19.6%
20% -10.2% 7% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$17 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.71 per $1 lost it wins $4.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage93d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 27 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 27 $833 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $480 +$25 +5%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 11 $474 $0 +0%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $444 +$1 +0%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $468 +$24 +5%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 06 $476 +$11 +2%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $474 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 -0%
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) Apr 18 $60 +$418 +693%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 16 $12 −$2 -21%
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) Mar 31 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Mar 27 $68 +$1 +1%
Slovakia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $364 59m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $364 1h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $365 4h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $365 4h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $480 16d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $474 16d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $474 16d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $445 18d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $444 18d
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $468 20d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 20d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $463 20d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $468 20d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Slovenia 98¢ $476 23d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $476 23d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $474 23d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 57d
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) SELL SC Braga $33 71d
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) BUY SC Braga $27 71d
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) BUY SC Braga $33 71d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $5 71d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $0 71d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $4 71d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $6 72d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $6 72d
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino $21 87d
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino $9 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records