Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99bb…8dd5 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$177 (-19%) realized −$160 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%40W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$25
sports 24% −$118
world 19% −$92
politics 5% −$1
finance 2% +$22
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 50% -62.2%
≤30d 9 -19.4% -27.0% 44% 44% -52.7%
≤90d 77 -2.8% -12.1% 52% 48% -28.8%
all 77 -2.8% -12.1% 52% 48% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 48% -28.8%
10% -20.5% 42% -35.6%
15% -28.2% 31% -41.8%
20% -35.2% 27% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses40 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage80d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 41¢ $46 $31 −$15 (-33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$2 +79%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $23 −$22 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $10 +$2 +18%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $5 +$10 +205%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $5 +$1 +23%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 24 $2 +$1 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 24 $15 +$16 +107%
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$7 +64%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 4 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Fermín Lopez: Anytime Goalscorer May 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $14 −$14 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 05 $6 +$2 +29%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $10 −$2 -20%
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $8 +$7 +85%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $5 +$11 +226%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $12 −$11 -97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $63 −$62 -98%
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $12 +$26 +223%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $34 +$8 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $30 +$3 +12%
Will FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $6 +$2 +33%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $20 +$7 +34%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Apr 22 $15 −$2 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $14 +$22 +153%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Gabriel Jesus: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 19 $1 −$1 -69%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $2 +$5 +243%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 7h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $3 4d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes $0 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 24d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $16 24d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 24d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 31¢ $2 24d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 24d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 24d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 32¢ $5 24d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $2 38d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 38d
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 56¢ $5 38d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 38d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 38d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 41d
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 41d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 43d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 44d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 4 - 0 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes $5 44d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 44d
Fermín Lopez: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 40¢ $25 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.71 · official $45.71 (match) · 204 history records