Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99b9…459e world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$10
politics 22% $0
other 20% +$1
sports 10% −$11
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 9% -9.3%
≤30d 34 +2.3% -7.5% 47% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 78 +1.0% -8.6% 35% 3% -9.8%
all 79 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage491d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $141 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $66 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $28 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $202 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $48 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $142 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $52 −$9 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $35 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $7 −$2 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $74 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $37 −$1 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $112 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $21 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $8 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.37 · official $32.37 (match) · 368 history records