Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99b7…177f crypto 891 markets active 1d ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$751 (-4%) realized −$788 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%463W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day64.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$450
7 days−$451
14 days−$511
30 days−$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$550
other 2% +$37
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 -19.1% -26.8% 63% 62% -12.4%
≤30d 445 -15.1% -23.2% 59% 58% -12.8%
≤90d 952 -13.5% -21.8% 49% 47% -14.5%
all 952 -13.5% -21.8% 49% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 47% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 37% -22.7%
15% -36.1% 24% -30.2%
20% -42.4% 21% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses463 / 489
Open positions1
Markets (closed)952 / 891
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 952 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $400 $437 +$37 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 383 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 29? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 29? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 29? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 29? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 29? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $6 −$6 -104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on April 29? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or below on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $410 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.69 · official $436.69 (match) · 3500 history records