Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99b6…347e other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,536 (-59%) realized −$16,536 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,533per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$12,402
sports 19% −$5,126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-67.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -63.9% -67.3% 12% 12% -66.7%
≤30d 8 -63.9% -67.3% 12% 12% -66.7%
≤90d 8 -63.9% -67.3% 12% 12% -66.7%
all 8 -63.9% -67.3% 12% 12% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.3% 12% -66.7%
10% ← realistic here -70.5% 12% -69.9%
15% -73.3% 12% -72.8%
20% -75.9% 12% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,809 vs −$2,762 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3,533
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7,615 −$3,989 -52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,790 −$4,626 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6,639 −$6,421 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $519 −$500 -96%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,083 −$371 -18%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,068 +$1,809 +59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,138 −$3,029 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $414 −$400 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $864 46m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $289 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $288 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $959 3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $960 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $316 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $260 3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $576 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $383 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $486 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,039 3h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 8¢ $519 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,033 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,447 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,710 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,712 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $771 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $3,118 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2,083 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,131 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,216 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $662 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $660 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,475 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $414 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,068 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,932 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $832 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,095 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records