trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $395,153 | $397,342 | +$2,189 (+1%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $341,887 | $342,204 | +$318 (+0%) |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $181,353 | $181,540 | +$187 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $373,651 | +$374 | +0% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 06 | $5,815,482 | $0 | -0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $609,757 | +$2,232 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 02 | $401,825 | +$1,209 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 23 | $280,488 | +$281 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 09 | $999,000 | +$1,000 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 01 | $995,892 | +$1,996 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 29 | $990,792 | +$7,129 | +1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Apr 21 | $221,778 | +$444 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 11 | $988,888 | +$990 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 80% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 90% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 10 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 90% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -9.3% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -18.0% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.2% |