Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99ab…f576 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-23%) realized −$111 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$90
sports 25% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 40% -24.3%
≤30d 5 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 40% -24.3%
≤90d 5 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 40% -24.3%
all 5 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 40% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 40% -24.3%
10% -31.7% 40% -31.6%
15% -38.3% 40% -38.2%
20% -44.4% 40% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$44 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 68¢ 92¢ $59 $79 +$20 (+35%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $79 +$51 +65%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$29 +57%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $99 −$97 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $32 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $59 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $71 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $79 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $48 16h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 53¢ $48 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $51 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 22h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $51 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.85 · official $138.85 (match) · 11 history records