Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

99 0x99a8…87c6 politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate5%1W / 19L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$187per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$6

7 days−$8

14 days−$8

30 days−$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-15.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-1.3%	-10.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤30d	17	-1.3%	-10.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	17	-1.3%	-10.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
all	20	-6.1%	-15.0%	5%	0%	-10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.0%	0%	-10.0%
10%	-23.1%	0%	-18.7%
15%	-30.6%	0%	-26.5%
20%	-37.4%	0%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage

Net worth$426

Realized−$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)5%

Wins / losses1 / 19

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage246d

Avg bet$187

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$209	$208	−$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$199	$199	−$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	91¢	90¢	$19	$19	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$388	−$1	-0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$159	$0	-0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$3	−$1	-19%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$209	$0	-0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$192	−$1	-0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$506	−$1	-0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$161	−$1	-0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$179	$0	-0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$188	$0	-0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$229	$0	-0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$169	$0	-0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$179	$0	-0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$437	−$1	-0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$219	$0	-0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$219	$0	-0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$179	$0	-0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$189	$0	-0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?	Dec 26	$19	$0	+1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Nov 24	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Oct 22	$49	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	55m
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$199	3h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$159	4h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	4h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	11h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	12h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$159	13h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	15h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	17h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	17h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$168	23h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	23h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$158	23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$179	24h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	28h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$179	28h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	28h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$159	28h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	29h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$228	29h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$188	33h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	34h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$179	34h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$179	36h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$169	38h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$229	38h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	42h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$179	44h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$179	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.93 · official $425.93 (match) · 62 history records