Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x99a7…87b6 sports 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,247 (-3%) realized −$1,311 · open +$64
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%44W / 52L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days+$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,223
world 14% −$99
other 7% +$3
finance 3% +$1
crypto 3% −$322
politics 1% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 42% -11.4%
≤30d 22 -4.7% -13.7% 50% 50% -4.8%
≤90d 84 -6.9% -15.8% 45% 38% -16.1%
all 96 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 40% -12.8%
10% -23.6% 38% -21.1%
15% -31.0% 35% -28.7%
20% -37.7% 34% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$505) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$294 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$5,055
Realized−$1,311
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses44 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions18
Markets (closed)96 / 117
History coverage102d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,178 $1,212 +$35 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $500 $774 +$274 (+55%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $700 $736 +$36 (+5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $481 $490 +$9 (+2%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $480 $484 +$4 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $249 −$51 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $200 $166 −$34 (-17%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 58¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 76¢ 86¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 36¢ $110 $85 −$25 (-23%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 47¢ 32¢ $110 $74 −$36 (-33%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $149 +$181 +122%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $186 +$137 +74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$90 -18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $223 +$261 +117%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $223 −$182 -82%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 +$50 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2,216 +$667 +30%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $187 −$183 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $186 −$183 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $186 −$183 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $205 −$184 -90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $405 +$321 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $371 +$252 +68%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $761 −$241 -32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $371 −$366 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $412 −$406 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $509 +$635 +125%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $304 +$210 +69%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $506 +$371 +73%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 22 $171 +$37 +22%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $100 −$20 -20%
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) Apr 24 $500 −$494 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 17 $220 −$4 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 17 $357 +$19 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 17 $200 −$41 -20%
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Apr 16 $252 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,285 +$31 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $1,414 +$3 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 14 $501 −$16 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 14 $200 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $200 −$68 -34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 13 $398 −$47 -12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $605 −$28 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 13 $972 −$44 -4%
Spread: Magic (-13.5) Apr 13 $900 +$685 +76%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $710 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 12 $25 −$2 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 12 $270 −$8 -3%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $118 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 12 $45 −$11 -25%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Anastasia Potapova vs Donna Vekic Apr 11 $600 +$25 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 09 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 09 $100 +$19 +19%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Apr 08 $570 −$562 -99%
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 237.5 Apr 08 $570 +$574 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes $51 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $111 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $148 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $112 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $112 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $112 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 97¢ $330 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $152 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $10 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $4 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $44 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $112 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY $10 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $149 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $186 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $415 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi BUY 25¢ $31 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $484 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $41 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $150 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,883 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,006 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1,210 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 48¢ $508 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,054.73 · official $5,029.95 (match) · 428 history records