Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x99a5…95cf
weather · 510 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$58 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$91 · open −$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,280
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses270 / 56
Open positions184
Markets (closed)326 / 510
History coverage5d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day679.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 184 History 326 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 93¢ 95¢ $166 $169 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $167 $169 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 94¢ 77¢ $160 $132 −$28 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 91¢ 93¢ $119 $121 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $101 $110 +$9 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $72 $77 +$5 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $67 $73 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $66 $72 +$5 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 94¢ 93¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 88¢ 96¢ $47 $51 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $47 $51 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? No 88¢ 99¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? No 95¢ 97¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? No 90¢ 99¢ $42 $47 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 90¢ 81¢ $51 $46 −$5 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 91¢ 91¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 91¢ 89¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 93¢ 99¢ $41 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $93 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $68 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $53 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $34 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $82 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$10 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 +$5 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $21 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $121 −$30 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $9 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $6 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $2 40m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 +7.4% -2.8% 83% 24% -8.5%
≤30d 326 +7.4% -2.8% 83% 24% -8.5%
≤90d 326 +7.4% -2.8% 83% 24% -8.5%
all 326 +7.4% -2.8% 83% 24% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover679.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 24% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 10% -17.3%
15% -20.6% 9% -25.3%
20% -28.4% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,280.48 · official $4,280.12 (match) · 3500 history records