Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99a5…b3ca other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
politics 14% −$7
other 7% $0
sports 1% −$60
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -22.8%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 42 -9.3% -17.9% 19% 12% -12.6%
all 54 -7.4% -16.2% 24% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 9% -9.9%
10% -24.2% 9% -18.5%
15% -31.5% 7% -26.4%
20% -38.3% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage573d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $85 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $76 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$9 +172%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $11 +$5 +48%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $14 +$4 +31%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $49 $0 +1%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $24 $0 +0%
Devils vs. Rangers Mar 26 $23 +$21 +89%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $92 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,533 −$14 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 16h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $7 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $66 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.62 · official $38.62 (match) · 237 history records