Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99a4…5056 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$14 (-22%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -45.8% -51.0% 41% 24% -34.8%
≤30d 17 -45.8% -51.0% 41% 24% -34.8%
≤90d 17 -45.8% -51.0% 41% 24% -34.8%
all 17 -45.8% -51.0% 41% 24% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.0% 24% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -55.7% 24% -41.0%
15% -60.0% 12% -46.7%
20% -63.9% 6% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records