Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

99 0x99a3…0b85 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$125 (+35%) realized +$125 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip

Net edge+61%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+67.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+85.4%	+67.8%	67%	50%	+22.1%
≤30d	6	+85.4%	+67.8%	67%	50%	+22.1%
≤90d	6	+85.4%	+67.8%	67%	50%	+22.1%
all	6	+85.4%	+67.8%	67%	50%	+22.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+67.8%	50%	+22.1%
10%	+51.7%	50%	+10.4%
15%	+37.1%	50%	-0.3%
20%	+23.6%	50%	-10.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +85% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$17 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.58 per $1 lost it wins $4.58

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$125

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$30	+$31	+101%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	Jun 23	$31	−$9	-28%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 23	$202	−$26	-13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$20	+$31	+152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$40	+$4	+10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$32	+$93	+291%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	98¢	$61	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	48¢	$30	1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	SELL Portugal	17¢	$22	1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	BUY Portugal	23¢	$31	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	99¢	$133	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL No	30¢	$43	3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	68¢	$101	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	85¢	$25	25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	39¢	$20	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	66¢	$20	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	25¢	$32	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records