Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99a1…b0c3 politics 118 markets active 124d ago coverage 189d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 189d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38,176 (+769%) realized +$38,176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%135W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 189d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$3,571
other 27% +$1,241
politics 15% +$174
world 8% +$55
finance 6% −$313
weather 3% −$101
tech 2% +$15
economics 2% +$133
sports 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 478 -5.2% -14.3% 14% 13% -53.9%
≤30d 478 -5.2% -14.3% 14% 13% -53.9%
≤90d 478 -5.2% -14.3% 14% 13% -53.9%
all 601 +23.0% +11.2% 22% 20% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 20% -9.8%
10% +0.6% 19% -18.4%
15% -9.1% 16% -26.3%
20% -18.0% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$20 · ×3.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses135 / 466
Open positions0
Markets (closed)601 / 118
History coverage189d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 601 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on August 5? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? Jun 29 $34 −$113 -338%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jun 29 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Monday? Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $25 −$23 -91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or below on July 14? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 79°F or higher on August 17? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the Jun 29 $31 −$21 -66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or below on July Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on Aug Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on April 16? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Tanya Plibersek be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 22? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 71°F or higher on May 9? Jun 29 $5 −$1 -12%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? Jun 29 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on April 28? Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100000 and $102000 on May 16? Jun 29 $11 −$8 -73%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on Jun Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 93-94°F on Ju Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Jun 29 $27 −$12 -44%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Jun 29 $10 +$2 +18%
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Jun 29 $1 +$21 +1752%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 66-67°F on April 14? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on March 31? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? Jun 29 $16 −$7 -42%
Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Part Jun 29 $47 +$42 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on April 11? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Williams be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 29 $3 +$28 +864%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jun 29 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Martin O'Malley be the next DNC chair? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump cut NPR funding in April? Jun 29 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? Jun 29 $50 +$137 +275%
Will the Liberals win between 120-139 seats in the next Canadian Elect Jun 29 $14 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on April 15? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on Au Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68–69°F on Ma Jun 29 $6 −$2 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 123d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 124d
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 124d
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 124d
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 124d
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 124d
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 124d
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 124d
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 124d
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 124d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 124d
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 124d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 124d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 124d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 124d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 124d
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 124d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 124d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 124d
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 124d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 124d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 124d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 124d
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records