Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
99 0x999f…4ae5 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-22%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$380
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-85.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -83.9% -85.4% 0% 0% -74.3%
≤30d 3 -83.9% -85.4% 0% 0% -74.3%
≤90d 3 -83.9% -85.4% 0% 0% -74.3%
all 3 -83.9% -85.4% 0% 0% -74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.4% 0% -74.3%
10% -86.8% 0% -76.8%
15% -88.1% 0% -79.0%
20% -89.2% 0% -81.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$127 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $311 −$160 -52%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $125 −$120 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 7¢ $151 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $155 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $125 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records