trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 57¢ | 57¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $56 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 05 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 25 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 21 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Pittsburgh vs. NC State | Mar 05 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech | Mar 05 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mitch McConnell applaud during Trump's address to Congress? | Mar 05 | $53 | −$14 | -27% |
| 50 or more bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting | Mar 05 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 3? | Mar 05 | $20 | +$28 | +144% |
| Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-04? | Mar 03 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Mar 03 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Robert Morris vs. IUPUI | Mar 03 | $18 | +$7 | +41% |
| Albany vs. UMBC | Feb 27 | $16 | +$1 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 20% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 20% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 20% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 20 | +9.0% | -1.4% | 60% | 10% | -4.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.4% | 10% | -4.7% |
| 10% | -10.8% | 10% | -13.8% |
| 15% | -19.5% | 10% | -22.2% |
| 20% | -27.4% | 5% | -29.8% |