Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x999a…9a25 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3453 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,332 (-5%) realized −$2,672 · open −$660
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,446per market
Trades / day3453.0pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$9,980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$2,742
sports 27% −$684
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3453 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -7.0% -15.8% 36% 13% -14.0%
≤30d 39 -7.0% -15.8% 36% 13% -14.0%
≤90d 39 -7.0% -15.8% 36% 13% -14.0%
all 39 -7.0% -15.8% 36% 13% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3453.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 13% -14.0%
10% -23.9% 8% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 5% -29.7%
20% -38.0% 3% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
39.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$117 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9,980
Realized−$2,672
Unrealized−$660
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions11
Markets (closed)39 / 50
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$1,446
Trades / day3453.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 57¢ 50¢ $2,294 $2,022 −$273 (-12%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 77¢ $1,539 $1,503 −$36 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 45¢ 73¢ $810 $1,319 +$509 (+63%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,024 $1,073 +$49 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $932 $972 +$39 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 27¢ $1,643 $964 −$679 (-41%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 99¢ 100¢ $898 $909 +$11 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $920 $871 −$49 (-5%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $151 $204 +$53 (+35%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 85¢ 98¢ $42 $49 +$6 (+15%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 58¢ 74¢ $24 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Nightblood Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+68%)
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Maximo Zeitune 30¢ 45¢ $11 $17 +$5 (+49%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 39¢ 26¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Nicolas Zanellato 63¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 82¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 4¢ 1¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-82%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 20¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Los Angeles Sparks 16¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $101 −$18 -18%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $43 +$2 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12,402 −$297 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $28,643 −$1,657 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $749 −$47 -6%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $11,705 −$668 -6%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Amandine Hesse vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $548 −$68 -12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $207 −$4 -2%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $265 +$9 +3%
ITF Bergamo: Denis Constantin Spiridon vs Leonardo Borrelli Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Claremont: Sasha Rozin vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 25 $98 −$59 -60%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $42 −$10 -24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $124 −$18 -14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $89 +$2 +2%
ITF Bakio: Oscar Weightman vs Edward Winter Jun 25 $34 +$16 +46%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $133 +$8 +6%
ITF Rome: Madison Brengle vs Ekaterina Khayrutdinova Jun 25 $36 +$7 +18%
Plovdiv: Petr Nesterov vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 25 $23 −$7 -29%
ITF Rome: Tatum Evans vs Ayana Akli Jun 25 $26 +$2 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $82 −$1 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $107 −$19 -18%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $85 +$8 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 25 $53 −$2 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $138 −$2 -2%
ITF Rome: Ena Koike vs Capucine Jauffret Jun 25 $18 +$1 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $78 −$12 -16%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Vincent Dullinger vs Jeremy Gschwendtner Jun 25 $25 −$5 -19%
ITF Rome: Ariana Arseneault vs Elizabeth Ionescu Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $170 −$19 -11%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $52 −$8 -16%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $278 +$61 +22%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $53 +$6 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 25 $40 −$3 -8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Polina Iatcenko Jun 25 $62 −$7 -11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 25 $11 −$1 -9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $75 +$19 +25%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $34 +$20 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $52 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $71 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $84 0m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 49¢ $7 0m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 48¢ $93 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $74 1m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 1m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $100 1m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $78 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $165 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $2 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 50¢ $4 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 52¢ $63 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $167 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 52¢ $36 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $164 2m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $83 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $10 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $164 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $25 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $10 2m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $99 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $51 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $45 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,980.06 · official $10,066.89 (match) · 3500 history records