Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x9999…2ded weather 219 markets active 12h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$640 (+29%) realized +$640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%107W / 111L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$37
14 days−$19
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% +$619
world 24% −$35
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 27% -15.1%
≤30d 113 +41.3% +27.8% 53% 38% -0.7%
≤90d 218 +49.9% +35.6% 49% 39% +17.0%
all 218 +49.9% +35.6% 49% 39% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.6% 39% +17.0%
10% +22.6% 30% +5.8%
15% +10.8% 27% -4.5%
20% -0.1% 22% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses107 / 111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage86d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$26 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -58%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 15 $11 +$13 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -63%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $92 −$83 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 +$2 +844%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $96 +$10 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$8 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 73¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 1704 history records