Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9998…dbfe crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-3%) realized −$70 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%172W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$3
tech 21% −$11
crypto 17% +$4
sports 7% −$75
world 6% +$6
politics 5% −$1
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 84 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 4% -7.1%
all 189 -2.3% -11.6% 91% 12% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 12% -12.1%
10% -20.0% 9% -20.5%
15% -27.8% 6% -28.2%
20% -34.8% 3% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses172 / 17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)189 / 194
History coverage560d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $85 $81 −$4 (-5%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $182 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $36 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $118 +$2 +1%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 21 $121 +$3 +3%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $52 +$9 +18%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $51 $0 +1%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $113 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 04 $44 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $85 1h
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 9h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 18h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 20h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $66 27h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 99¢ $233 3d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 100¢ $182 29d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $118 34d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 35d
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $121 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 97¢ $36 40d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $52 43d
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 49d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3 49d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 49d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 49d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 49d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 49d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $4 50d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.01 · official $230.54 (match) · 394 history records