Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x9996…72a8 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$390 (+8%) realized +$653 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%40W / 23L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days+$446
14 days+$522
30 days+$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$490
sports 20% −$232
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 60% +8.4%
≤30d 63 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 60% +4.4%
≤90d 63 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 60% +4.4%
all 63 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 60% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 60% +4.4%
10% -16.3% 59% -5.6%
15% -24.4% 49% -14.7%
20% -31.8% 35% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$842
Realized+$653
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses40 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)63 / 75
History coverage14d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 48¢ $630 $440 −$190 (-30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $150 $169 +$19 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 100¢ $20 $59 +$39 (+194%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 50¢ 14¢ $150 $42 −$108 (-72%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 76¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+27%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 +$9 +152%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $68 −$42 -62%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$21 +101%
Harry Kane: 3+ shots Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $304 +$193 +64%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $112 −$111 -99%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $165 +$104 +63%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $66 +$53 +80%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +52%
France leading at halftime? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W Jun 23 $101 +$36 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$29 +57%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $15 +$16 +105%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $136 +$63 +46%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$32 +64%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $223 +$104 +46%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$14 +69%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$32 -64%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$32 +49%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $140 −$140 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$74 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +57%
Declan Rice: 1+ shots Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots Jun 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $157 +$113 +72%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 47m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 48m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 49m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $121 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $81 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 58¢ $51 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $81 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $15 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $25 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $841.94 · official $917.18 · 217 history records