Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9994…84af other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$246 (-12%) realized −$244 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$755
sports 16% +$409
politics 8% −$14
crypto 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +27.6% +15.5% 25% 22% -27.7%
≤30d 32 +27.6% +15.5% 25% 22% -27.7%
≤90d 32 +27.6% +15.5% 25% 22% -27.7%
all 32 +27.6% +15.5% 25% 22% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 22% -27.7%
10% +4.4% 22% -34.6%
15% -5.7% 22% -41.0%
20% -14.9% 22% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$47 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage6d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $419 −$414 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 17 $177 −$14 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $168 +$88 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$16 -16%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$105 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 −$160 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $96 +$89 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$12 -39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -84%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 +$346 +1843%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +145%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$22 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$30 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $419 11h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $163 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $168 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 31h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 52¢ $85 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 34h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $61 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 26¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $96 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 1¢ $1 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $138 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.07 · official $148.07 (match) · 65 history records