Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
99 0x9991…5855 other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$19
politics 37% −$19
sports 8% +$66
economics 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -3.6% -12.8% 6% 6% -9.6%
all 122 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 7% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage117d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $361 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $333 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $969 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 06 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $300 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $311 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $250 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $335 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $260 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $309 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $359 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $361 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $265 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $341 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $287 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $302 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $315 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $297 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $368 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $293 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $356 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $333 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $364 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $324 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $308 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $361 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $361 30d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 34d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $284 36d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $333 36d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $333 38d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 39d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $300 46d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 46d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 47d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $301 47d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $301 48d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 49d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 49d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $365 49d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $365 50d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $311 50d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $311 50d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $319 50d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $319 50d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $246 51d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $246 51d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $267 51d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $267 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.88 · official $95.88 (match) · 341 history records