Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x998f…75d1 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$93 (+0%) realized +$294 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%38W / 21L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$920per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252
7 days+$252
14 days+$252
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$674
sports 40% +$1,592
world 11% −$163
other 5% −$512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 10 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 50% -2.6%
≤90d 10 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 50% -2.6%
all 59 -11.4% -19.9% 64% 46% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -8.8%
10% -27.5% 25% -17.5%
15% -34.5% 14% -25.5%
20% -40.9% 12% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$830) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$352 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$294
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses38 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage169d
Avg bet$920
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 25¢ 0¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $208 +$291 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $518 +$540 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $558 +$430 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $295 +$265 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $723 −$723 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $303 +$114 +38%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 18 $318 +$170 +53%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jan 18 $830 −$830 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $636 +$159 +25%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $461 −$447 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $221 +$124 +56%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jan 18 $1,214 +$72 +6%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jan 17 $816 −$55 -7%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 17 $546 +$31 +6%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jan 17 $892 +$100 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $344 +$56 +16%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jan 17 $259 +$23 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jan 17 $294 +$56 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jan 16 $982 +$35 +4%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? Jan 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs ENCE - Map 2 Winner Jan 16 $1,400 +$222 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners (BO3) Jan 16 $134 −$54 -40%
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw? Jan 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jan 16 $450 +$85 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jan 15 $200 +$27 +13%
Hobart International: Iva Jovic vs Magda Linette Jan 15 $100 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3) Jan 15 $177 +$42 +23%
Counter-Strike: FriendlyCampers vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jan 15 $200 +$30 +15%
Counter-Strike: FriendlyCampers vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jan 15 $200 +$48 +24%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Jan 14 $100 +$26 +26%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 14 $200 +$35 +17%
Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Adelaide International: Victoria Mboko vs Anna Kalinskaya Jan 14 $352 −$352 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) Jan 14 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) Jan 13 $4,368 +$3,818 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 13 $6,305 +$64 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 13 $6,242 +$63 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 13 $988 −$988 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 13 $6,180 +$62 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 13 $6,343 −$163 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 13 $1,082 +$63 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 13 $400 −$387 -97%
Adelaide International: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Sebastian Korda Jan 13 $1,448 +$216 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $42 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $208 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $518 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $558 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $218 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $381 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $186 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $155 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $311 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 72¢ $202 4h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 72¢ $303 7h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $102 8h
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $488 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 6¢ $5 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 26¢ $206 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 36¢ $190 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $33 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $13 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $2 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $813 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $9 152d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $9 152d
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 152d
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 152d
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $25 152d
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $207 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.40 (match) · 251 history records